The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by U.S. monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 19921998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time. We also find interesting differences between Federal Reserve governors and the presidents of the regional Reserve Banks as well as between voting and non-voting presidents.
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